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Study on China's Real Exchange Rate Equilibrium Mechanism Under a Main Component Analysis Framework
Author(s): 
Pages: 31-44
Year: Issue:  1
Journal: NANKAI ECONOMIC STUDIES

Keyword:  主成分分析误差修正模型均衡实际汇率汇率制度;
Abstract: 采用主成分法,将理论上对实际汇率具有影响的8个实际经济变量进行了数据浓缩,从中抽取出三个主成分,进而以它们作为解释变量,建立误差修正模型以测量我国的均衡实际汇率.本文测出的我国实际均衡汇率是一个存在趋势项和漂移项的退势平稳过程.实际均衡汇率的趋势性表明,人民币均衡价值在观测期内存在持续贬值的趋势.这说明在实施盯住美元的汇率制度和限制资本流动的政策环境下,我国实际汇率存在着独特的均衡机制,这种均衡机制以维持高经济增长率为目标,以不断扩大出口需求为动力,同时要求人民币的均衡价值不断降低.
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